Russian economist Vladislav Zhukovsky says this situation is made worse by the fact that many at the top of the Russian economic pyramid are behaving as they did in 1998, betting on an ever weaker ruble by buying hard currency and then planning to get back into the Russian market later at fire sale prices and thus improving their position but not the country’s.
By Paul Goble* for “Window on Eurasia”:
August 14 – Vladislav Zhukovsky, an economist known for predicting disasters in the Russian economy and for then turning out to be right, says that the situation is more dire than almost anyone imagines because oil is heading to 25 US dollars a barrel, the ruble to 125 to the US dollar, and inflation to 30 percent. Continue reading
Posted in Economy, Oil, Russia
Nomura’s Timothy Ash says: “…there is still no evidence of fundamental structural reform and a willingness to address the problems which are well known to domestic and foreign policy elites. Arguably this is because the kinds of reforms that Russia needs would undermine Putin’s power vertical/sovereign democratic model which is the cornerstone of his power in office. Simply put a new development model is not saleable to the man at the top. And, until we see change – e.g. in oil prices, an easing off of the stand-off with the West over Ukraine (unlikely at this point) or real and substantive reform in Russia, then Russia will remain in terminal decline, and Russian markets will have a weakening bias – with the ruble likely in the front line therein.”
LONDON, Aug 11, 2015 (UBO) – The noted international economist Timothy Ash of Nomura International at 10:59 today issued an analysis of Russia’s outlook for the future that raises serious questions for the future that says in part: “Suffice to say dreadful numbers out of Russia – and little sign of any recovery any time soon.” Continue reading